Date: Monday, 25 August
Distance: 135km
Start location: San Maurizio Canavese
Finish location: Ceres
Start time: 14:20 CEST
Finish time: 17:22 CEST
Dating back to 1935 and having its 80th edition this year, there’s a long history to the Vuelta a España, but it’s not quite as old as the other Grand Tours. That becomes especially apparent when you consider the career of Giovanni Brunero, the most famous son of today’s start town San Maurizio Canavese. One of the great riders of his generation, who became professional having fought as a marksman during World War One, Brunero became the first rider to win the pink jersey three times in the 1920s, and to this day remains joint-fourth on the all-time list for that race. But he never raced the Vuelta, which was first held a year before he tragically died in 1939 from tuberculosis, aged just 39.
While the Vuelta might be longer than the men’s Giro d’Italia, it’s a lot older than the women’s Giro, which was the last major race to visit the city of Ceres in 2023 until today’s stage. Antonia Niedermaier was the victor that day, slipping clear out the group of favourites on a climb earlier in the day and holding them off to the finish, but Annemiek van Vleuten was the big winner in the GC race, extending her lead to over two minutes by dropping all of her rivals on a climb 12km from the finish, and laying the foundations for her overall victory — which, having two months earlier won the revamped women’s Vuelta a España.
There’s comparatively less climbing on the agenda today than that stage at the women’s Giro, and so we don’t expect much GC action, but at the same time the parcours they weave through against the backdrop of the Graian Alps is too hard for the sprinters to remain in contention. The official designation of just one categorised climb is misleading — after cresting the category two Puerto Issaglio 68km from the finish, the riders will take on another couple of unclassified rises, with barely a road that isn’t ascending or descending until the gradually uphill finish at Ceres.
These roads look ideal territory for a breakaway. Though it’s early in the race for a break to succeed, many riders will have the advantage of having lost enough time on GC following yesterday’s uphill finish to be given the freedom to get up the road unmarked. That said, if there’s a team that thinks this finish fits their leader, they might commit to a chase. The final 2.6km rise at a gradient of about 4%, which the more versatile sprinters could be able to defeat the puncheurs on, although they also have to have preserved enough energy during the gradual uphill that precedes the official start of the climb.
Contenders
The climb at the finish means the win will likely go to a puncheur like Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek), who won on similar terrain at the Giro d'Italia in May. Lidl-Trek also have another option in Giulio Ciccone who was so close to victory on stage two, missing out by a whisker to Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike).
Tom Pidcock (Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team) is another punchy rider who could claim victory after two top 10s already at the race. Puncheur Iván García Cortina (Movistar) is his squad's best bet, but Orluis Aular could also try his hand if he can handle the final climb.
The climbers of the bunch like David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ), João Almeida, Juan Ayuso (both UAE Team Emirates-XRG), Matteo Jorgenson, Ben Tulett (both Visma-Lease a Bike) and Egan Bernal (Ineos Grenadiers) will all hope to be up there at the finish.
The stage looks to be too hard for the likes of Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck) Ethan Vernon and Jake Stewart (Israel-Premier Tech) but if the climb isn't raced all-out, they could feature.
A darkhorse for the stage could be Filippo Ganna (Ineos Grenadiers) who has a history of strong climbing. Likewise his teammate Ben Turner might give it a crack.
Prediction
We think Mads Pedersen will win the stage.
