At the start of stage 16 of the Giro d’Italia, the time gap between the pink jersey Isaac del Toro (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) and Derek Gee (Israel Premier-Tech) was 2:54. It now stands at 1:31, with Gee in fourth and Del Toro, for now, still in the lead. On an Alpine day of diverging fortunes, the condensing of the top four contrasts with the widening of the gaps further down the leaderboard. It was an explosive stage, with some riders like Giulio Pellizzari (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) erupting up the GC. But like a prosecco bottle ready to burst, the neck is narrowed, squeezed and pressured at the top. While for some, the bottom has fallen off entirely.
The three main challengers to Del Toro — Simon Yates (Visma-Lease a Bike), Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) and Gee took time on the maglia rosa, but others like the two pre-race favourites Juan Ayuso and Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe), are both out of the running; Ayuso shipping 13:37 to Carapaz and Roglič abandoning. This tightening at the top and the expanding at the bottom of the GC top 10 may have provided some answers about who will don the pink jersey in Rome — Can Roglič fight back to win? No. Who is the UAE leader? Del Toro. Are Simon Yates and Richard Carapaz going to be strong in the final week? Yes.
But although things have simplified, it is still not clear who will win La Corsa Rosa. The top four contenders could all still win it. If it were not for Gee shipping 0:57 on stage one, the top four would have been within 0:40 and by the evidence of stage 16, the man leading the overall, Del Toro, is the weakest. The best climbers appear to be the men sitting in second to fourth, and Pellizzari in ninth. The young Italian, who is only 4:36 down, seems like he would have been challenging if he hadn’t been in the service of Roglič for the first 15 stages.
With the situation reaching a crescendo, what can we expect from the remaining four stages of the race? Stage 17, despite featuring the mighty Mortirolo, may not be the one with its long run into the finish, but the two former Grand Tour winners won’t want to bide their time too long before putting time into the 21-year-old Mexican, who is far from out of the battle yet.
The impetus lies with Carapaz and Yates. The former has been the most aggressive so far, and has made some major gains from doing so. But now the Giro enters its most pivotal stages, does he have the nerve to keep doing so? He won’t be prepared to give Simon Yates a free ride on the front, only to be done over by the Brit, who is looking to be in some of the best shape he’s been in for years. But perhaps, the opposite has already happened; today Yates seemingly let Carapaz up the road, only to then be able to attack Del Toro himself. Was it a mistake from Yates to not follow Carapaz, and has it cost him the Giro? It won’t be the first time the Ecuadorian was let up the road and triumphed here. Or was Yates simply not able to follow his move? If that were the case, there would be even more incentive for Carapaz to attack, attack and attack, knowing he has the others in his pocket.
And what about Gee? Despite the disappointment of losing the 0:57 in Albania, he will be allowed the most freedom out of the top four riders. If he could latch onto a move from some of the other men looking to climb up the GC like Egan Bernal (Ineos Grenadiers), Pellizzari or Michael Storer (Tudor Pro Cycling Team), and he could find some useful allies and ride himself all the way into the maglia rosa. Both Yates and Carapaz may look at each other to follow, and Gee could steal a march.
Stage 16 provided some answers but also raised more questions. This topsy-turvy, sparkling Giro d’Italia is ready to erupt. The first loosening of the maglia rosa off the shoulders of Isaac Del Toro. Whether it will slip entirely is yet to be seen. And who will benefit? Carapaz is looking the most dangerous, but Yates is canny, and Gee is plucky. The overall battle at the Giro may have been whittled down, but there is no standout favourite. There is plenty of fizz left in the race.
