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On stage 15 of the Giro d’Italia, UAE Team Emirates-XRG didn’t have to do much to inflict a significant blow to the pre-race favourite, Primož Roglič’s (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) chances of a second career maglia rosa. Instead, it was Ineos Grenadiers and EF Education-EasyPost who set the pace and exposed the 2023 winner. Roglič was prone, vulnerable and suffering. Other teams joined in, sensing the Slovenian’s blood in the water — In the final 30km, domestiques from Visma-Lease a Bike, Israel-Premier Tech, Movistar and Bahrain-Victorious all paced for their respective leaders. But as the Corsa Rosa enters its final rest day, they will be plotting and scheming with their next target being the young UAE leaders, Juan Ayuso and Isaac del Toro, the maglia rosa himself.
It was all within UAE’s right to not force the pace earlier on Dori, the final climb of stage 15. They have two podium spots to defend and other teams were willing to make the race hard. Roglič was the victim today, but UAE’s allies today will be their enemies come Tuesday. The aggressiveness displayed by Richard Carapaz (EF), Simon Yates (Visma) and Egan Bernal (Ineos) could be a forewarning of things to come in the third and final week, packed full of consecutive high mountain days. Between them they have all three of the Grand Tour victories on their palmarès and have the teams to back them up if they call for aggressive tactics.
All that being said, the current maglia rosa Isaac del Toro is looking every bit up for the challenge. At every attack, he is proper and correct on the front, closing it down and even putting a dig in himself. Entering the third week, the 21-year-old is a favourite, if not the favourite, to win the overall race, with five meaningful stages left before the procession into the Italian capital, this time next week. Then why would there be any doubts? What is standing in UAE’s way of a consecutive triumph at the Corsa Rosa?
If UAE had all eyes on causing as much damage to Roglič after he was dropped, they would have told all their remaining domestiques to go on the front for the final 29km and pull all-out to the finish. They did come to the front but they certainly were not going as hard as possible. Granted they didn’t need to because other teams were willing to work. But, on the final climb, pacing all-out would not only have deterred the attacks from Carapaz but also kept a consistent pace, which would have put more damage into Roglič's chances. Despite spending 29km seemingly on his last legs, the Slovenian only lost 1:30 — a significant gap but not a coup de grâce. Roglič, now 3:53 back, might not be coming back from this, but UAE’s tactics might hint at a potential chink in their armour that the likes of Carapaz and Yates might look to exploit: today they were not willing to risk exposing Juan Ayuso.
The biggest question mark is not over the maglia rosa, Del Toro but rather the rider sitting third on GC, Ayuso, who perhaps due to lingering problems with his knee injury has not been looking all that good in this second week. Despite being one of if not the best rider in the first 15 stages, Del Toro is riding like a domestique for Ayuso, chasing down moves by riders like Carapaz. Is it because Ayuso wasn’t capable of following the moves or because he is the outright leader of the team? Either way, it’s a potential weakness within the team.
At this point, Del Toro is UAE’s best chance at winning this Giro d’Italia and there may come a point where they have to be prepared to lose their multi leader dominance in order to win the overall race. Today wasn’t that day, the terrain wasn’t suitable, Yates, Bernal and Carapaz looked good and equally Ayuso didn’t look quite as strong. However, the whole point of a multi leader strategy is that other teams have more than one contender to watch out for. For it to work, Ayuso has to be a credible challenger, otherwise the other favourites will just monitor Del Toro. The tables are turning: despite UAE being rightfully passive today, as the high mountains approach, they are the ones who must be wary of the threats lingering on multiple fronts.
If one of your GC hopes is weakened, Carapaz, Bernal or Yates are not riders you want getting a whiff. They are like sharks and UAE aren’t out of the water yet. Roglic may have lost time, but three other Grand Tour winners have stepped in to take his place.
