Date: Wednesday, May 14
Distance: 151km
Start location: Ceglie Messapica
Finish location: Matera
Start time: 13:35 CEST
Finish time: 17:12 CEST (approx.)
It’s rare for the Giro d’Italia to venture as far south as it has for these first two stages on the nation’s mainland. In fact, at no point in the last two editions has it reached as southern a point as Ceglie Messapica, the ancient Salento town in which today’s stage begins. There are pragmatic reasons for this — the Alpine mountains that are so important for shaping the GC are situated at the extreme north of the country, so in order to have enough decisive mountain stages, and to avoid lengthy stages and long, environmentally unfriendly transfers, there simply isn’t the scope to spend much time here. But in a nation in which the wealth is so unevenly distributed between the north and the south, a southerner can’t help but feel cynical that the powers that be are once again overlooking them in favour of their well-heeled fellow countrymen.
Today’s stage therefore provides a chance to witness a side to Italy not so often seen at the Giro, most strikingly the Sassi di Matera that the day’s finishing destination is famous for. These are ancient cave dwellings, believed to have been inhabited for thousands of years. Carved into the limestone rock, they make for a stunning landscape, but were also a hotbed for disease and poverty when overcrowded during the 20th century. They’ve since been regenerated, and are now more the preserve of tourist spots and wealthier inhabitants.
The Giro last visited Matera in 2020, when Arnaud Démare got the better of Michael Matthews and Fabio Felline to take the win. This was the second of what would eventually be four stage wins that year for the Frenchman, but this one differed from the others in that it came on a tricky, draggy uphill to the finish. This year’s finish will present a similar challenge.
Further complicating matters for the sprinters are a series of hills in the run-in to the finish, which closely resemble a stage from the 2013 Giro. Thirty-eight kilometres from the finish, they will crest the category four, 2.8km Montescaglioso, the steep 8.5% slopes of which saw Mark Cavendish drop out of contention in 2013, putting a blot on his otherwise flawless record of winning five stages that year. Then comes another, albeit unclassified, climb to Castello Tramontano (7.1km at 3.5%), followed by more undulating roads before the final uphill drag to the finish.
On that occasion, John Degenkolb came out on top, maintaining his composure and strength to chase down Marco Canola, after his leadout man Luka Mezgec crashed in front of him around the final corner. The winner today is likely to be in the same mould as Degenkolb and Démare — fast sprinters, for sure, but also ones who are resolute and can dig deep on uphills.
Contenders
Unlike stage four which was raced over flat parcours, the lumpy finale to stage five will pose a significant challenge to the pure sprinters. Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) has been the clear standout performer so far at this year's race, taking two dominant stage wins over similar terrain to stage five. His Lidl-Trek team are likely to use a now tried-and-tested formula of pacing hard on the ascents to drop the pure sprinters to set up their leader, who has so far proved to be unmatchable in the reduced bunch sprints.
After his breakout win on stage four Casper van Uden (Team Picnic PostNL) will be full of confidence but as a pure sprinter he will struggle to hold onto the pace on the climbs. Similarly, Olav Kooij (Team Visma-Lease a Bike), Sam Bennett (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale Team) Kaden Groves (Alpecin-Deceuninck) and Max Kanter (XDS Astana Team) will have their work cut out to stay at the front on the final lumps but will hope to hang on to contend for the stage.
Like in the opening stages in Albania, Pedersen's main threats will likely come from other puncheurs like Orluis Aular (Movistar Team), who has two third-place finishes so far, Wout van Aert (Team Visma-Lease a Bike), and Corbin Strong (Israel-Premier Tech), who will all hope to survive the climbs in the front group to unleash their sprints.
The terrain offers enough opportunities for attacks, which could tempt the likes of Tom Pidcock (Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team), multiple Giro stage winner Diego Ulissi (XDS Astana Team), or Isaac del Toro (UAE Team Emirates-XRG).
The stage could even be an opportunity for GC contenders to try and catch out any opponents who are not positioned well in the finale. Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-hansgrohe) or Juan Ayuso (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) might look to launch early in the finale to take time.
Prediction
We think Mads Pedersen will continue his supremacy and take his third stage win in the space of five days.
