Date: Saturday, May 21
Distance: 205km
Start location: Verrès
Finish location: Sestriere
Start time: 10:45 CEST
Finish time: 16:14 CEST (approx.)
No matter how well set the GC might appear ahead of this penultimate stage of the Giro d'Italia, and no matter how secure the leader’s hold on the pink jersey, there simply can be no guarantees before the abominable climb of Colle delle Finestre has been completed. It’s only featured at the Giro four times, but has turned the race on its head on three of those occasions, in which the pink jersey has been plunged into crisis by being dropped on its viscous slopes.
It rises relentlessly via endless hairpins for the first 10.5km at a gradient that rarely fluctuates from 9%, a legacy of having been paved by the military, who required their horses to drag cannons up it. It would already be among the Giro’s hardest climbs were it to stop here, but if anything, it gets even harder, continuing at the same gradient for yet another 8km, only this time on untarmacked roads. The summit is 2,178m in the sky, making it the Cima Coppi as this year’s highest point, and the hardest single test of the race.
The last time it featured at the Giro, in 2018, it was the centrepiece for one of the most memorable days of cycling in the modern era. First, on the tarmacked lower slopes, Simon Yates was dropped, imploding dramatically having spent the previous fortnight in the pink jersey. Then just before the gravel section of the climb, Chris Froome took off out the front of the peloton despite their still being 80km left to the finish, embarking on a stunning solo move that would see him finish over three minutes ahead of everyone, and leap from fourth overall to the pink jersey winner in one of the sport’s all-time great comebacks. Long-range moves from GC contenders might be more familiar now, but at the time, it was unheard of; for all his success at the Tour de France, this might have been Froome’s greatest day on a bicycle.
Whereas that stage continued for another 48km after descending the Finestre and climbing up to Sestriere, today’s will finish atop the latter, replicating the same parcours from the penultimate stages of the 2015, 2011 and 2005 editions that have produced such enthralling drama. In both 2015 and 2011, Alberto Contador successfully managed to defend the pink jersey, but not without a huge fight on the former occasion, when the Astana duo of Fabio Aru and Mikel Landa managed to eat into half of his seemingly unassailable margin of over four minutes. And in 2005, Paolo Savoldelli reached the top of the climb, having lost the virtual overall lead to Gilberto Simoni, only to use his infamous descending skills to save the day. The cases suggest that everything is still to play for in the GC race.
Contenders
Stage 20 delivers the Giro’s final mountain reckoning — a brutal high-altitude showdown built for the purest of climbers. With the mighty Colle delle Finestre looming large, this stage is a battlefield, and the pink jersey could still change hands. But Isaac del Toro (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) remains in a strong position in the maglia rosa and thanks to bonus seconds on the line on stage 19, he even extended his advantage to Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) in second place. The Giro will be decided on the steep gravel slopes of the Finestre, and the young Mexican faces the ultimate test of his resilience, with Carapaz guaranteed to attack — the Ecuadorian thrives in week three and has been trying all week to break the pink jersey. He is perhaps lacking teammates in the finale of these mountain stages to isolate Del Toro and exploit any climbing weaknesses he may have.
Simon Yates (Visma-Lease a Bike) is another major threat, but like Carapaz, seems to be lacking a mountain domestique to put Del Toro’s team under pressure in the last climb. Don’t overlook Derek Gee (Israel-Premier Tech), who’s riding a late-race surge with remarkable consistency and should benefit from the harder finale to stage 20, after losing a bit of time to Carapaz and Del Toro in the explosive finishes to stages 17 and 19. The Canadian has already defied expectations and could be the joker in the deck if the favourites mark each other too closely.
Italian fans will be watching Damiano Caruso (Bahrain Victorious) closely. With young teammate Antonio Tiberi falling back in the standings, Caruso is now Italy’s top hope and has the experience to seize a late-stage opportunity. Tiberi was in the break on stage 19 and may try again on the penultimate stage. Egan Bernal (Ineos Grenadiers) is perhaps running out of steam but will be hoping to hold onto his top GC spot. Rising star Giulio Pellizzari (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) is still climbing the GC and, with Primož Roglič out of the race, now has the freedom to go all-in. Einer Rubio (Movistar Team), another pure climber, has been climbing steadily and could still make a big impact in the finale.
While the GC drama is set to dominate, the breakaway dream isn’t dead. If the favourites hesitate or focus too much on one another, a daring move could stick. Romain Bardet (Picnic-PostNL), Wout Poels (XDS-Astana), Pello Bilbao (Bahrain Victorious), David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ), Chris Harper and Filippo Zana (Jayco Alula), Carlos Verona (Lidl-Trek) and maybe even Nicolas Prodhomme (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale Team) who won stage 19 and may look for more success. Another key rider to watch is Lorenzo Fortunato (XDS-Astana), has already secured the KOM classification but could be harbouring hopes of a win in the blue jersey to cap off a fantastic Giro for his team.
Prediction
We think Richard Carapaz will make the most of his climbing ability to attack on the Finestre for the stage win.
