Date: Thursday, May 29
Distance: 144km
Start location: Morbegno
Finish location: Cesano Maderno
Start time: 13:50 CEST
Finish time: 17:12 CEST (approx.)
Nestled between the giant Alpine mountains, the Valtellina is a historically strategic valley fought over by many of the Great Powers in European history. During the bloody Thirty Years War that was waged in the early 17th Century, the Habsburgs and the French vied for control of the Spanish Road, the crucial trade route that linked through the Alps the Habsburg’s northern territories in Flanders and southern territories in Italy. Earlier, in the 16th Century, the Venetian Republic paved the high San Marco Pass to establish a cross-Alpine route through Valtellina, to be able to trade with the Grisons to the north without having to cross into enemy territory belonging to the Duchy of Milan.
Rather than venture into this mountainous terrain and up San Marco, the riders competing in stage 18 of the Giro d'Italia will, upon setting off from the nearby small town of Morbegno, stick to the banks of Lake Como. This area surrounding Morbegno is known for its cheese, the cows and Orobic goats that roam the high-altitude pastures, milked to create a cheese renowned for its ageing potential. The riders won’t catch sight of those animals, however, instead sticking to the flatlands and breathing in the fresh air of Lake Como, taking in the many historic villas that dot the route.
Whether or not stage 18 ends in a successful breakaway or a bunch sprint may largely depend on what happens when the road departs Lake Como and heads into the hillier terrain to the east. At around 30km into the stage, the riders will embark upon the 7.6km climb of Parlasco, of which the 6.2% average gradients have been enough to see it rated category two. A plateau follows, after which they will start climbing again, up to the category three Colle Balisio. Then, after descending back down to Lake Como, they take on the category three Ravellino, followed closely by another uncategorised ascent.
This cluster of climbs will aid puncheurs and rouleurs aiming to deny the sprinters the stage win today, and should ensure that the day’s break is made up of strong riders. But will they survive to the finish? The final 57km to the finish at Cesano Maderno are flat, which will swing the advantage to the chasing peloton led by sprinters' teams, regardless of how strong the breakaway group is. Yet there are also plenty of reasons to believe that they will survive. At just 144km in total, this is the shortest road stage of this year’s Giro aside from the Rome finale, and will therefore require a more intense chase than usual, and less time for the break to fatigue. And as a general rule, bunch sprints are less common this deep into a Grand Tour, as sprinters’ teams are left fatigued and depleted in resources. It may be that the sprinters have to wait a few more days until the Rome finale to have their shot at a stage win once again.
Contenders
Stage 18 offers a brief pause in the GC hostilities, opening the door for the sprinters or breakaway artists to shine before the final chance in Rome. With limited chances left, those still hunting a win at this Giro will see this as a critical opportunity.
Having already claimed four stage victories, Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) is a favourite for the stage. But he won't have it easy — if Olav Kooij (Visma-Lease a Bike), the victor in the last bunch sprint on stage 12, can get over the lumps in the middle of the stage, he will challenge for victory. His teammate Wout van Aert may try his hand at the sprint if the Dutchman isn’t up for it. Casper van Uden (Team Picnic PostNL) is another to watch. After his sharp win in Lecce and a strong but mistimed effort on stage 12, he’ll be looking for redemption. Kaden Groves (Alpecin-Deceuninck), gritty as ever, will likely remain a fixture in the fast finishes, though he continues to battle for position without quite as strong lead-out train. Sam Bennett (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) and his team are still searching for a breakthrough. With only two sprint-friendly stages left, stage 18 is the penultimate chance for the Irishman to salvage a result.
Other sprinters capable of upsetting the established order include Ben Turner (Ineos Grenadiers), Max Kanter (XDS Astana Team), Orluis Aular (Movistar), Corbin Strong (Israel-Premier Tech), and Maikel Zijlaard (Tudor Pro). Each has shown the kick to trouble the big names in the right scenario.
It may be the chance for the strong rouleur riders from the breakaway like Mattia Cattaneo (Soudal Quick-Step), Mathias Vacek (Lidl-Trek), Taco van der Hoorn (Intermarché-Wanty), or Dries De Bondt (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale Team).Prediction
We think Olav Kooij will claim his second stage after a strong lead-out by his Visma team.
