2026 Tour de France promises suspense until the end – but there are few obstacles for Tadej Pogačar

2026 Tour de France promises suspense until the end – but there are few obstacles for Tadej Pogačar

The 2026 Tour de France will start with a bang, go into hibernation for a short while, and then finish with an almighty spectacle. It’s a race bookended by punishing stages, with something for everyone in between. The favourite is the man you think it is.

 

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What Tour de France route isn’t for Tadej Pogačar? The Slovenian superstar can do everything; throw cobbles, gravel, punchy ascents, rarefied air and even boredom at him and the UAE Team Emirates-XRG rider deals with it all without too much difficulty. There is one thing that could cause him to become unstuck though: lots and lots of time trialling kilometres against Remco Evenepoel, the undisputed world, European, Olympic and national champion in the discipline. 

The 2026 Tour de France, though, has not been tempted to throw that potentially thorny challenge Pogačar’s way – it is a route that the reigning champion will expect to thrive on. He has four yellow jerseys in his wardrobe at home, and he’ll be making space on the rack for a fifth. Jonas Vingegaard will push him – and Evenepoel hopes he will too – but there’s nothing on the 2026 parcours that stands out as a potential obstacle for Pogačar.

A 19km team time trial in Barcelona on stage one will kick off the GC action, and a day later the Volta a Catalunya’s much-loved undulating circuit around Montjuïc will be given the Tour treatment. Seconds will be lost and seconds will be gained; it’s a captivating start to the race that will see immediate winners and losers. 

In a marked difference to the 2025 race that had to wait until the 10th stage before the arrival of longer climbs and mountainous terrain, the 2026 race includes three stages in the Pyrenees in the first six days. In fact, there’s even a summit finish as early as stage three. But France’s southern mountain range will not be biting with all its ferocity this year – it’ll be offering a mere tickle, race organisers ASO reluctant to blow the race apart early on. That, to this writer at least, is a missed opportunity. 


It's set to be round six of the Pogačar-Vingegaard tussle.

At the height of the Pogačar-Vingegaard ding-dong in 2023, when the race approached the Pyrenees from the opposite side, the pendulum swung back and forth between Pogačar and Vingegaard, setting the foundation for one of the best races this century. But ASO isn’t keen on a repeat. The Aspin and Tourmalet are included as is customary, but the summit finish at Gavernie-Gèdre on stage six won’t cause any ruptures; the GC will spring into action on the opening weekend, and then it’ll trundle along for the best part of the next fortnight.

In the absence of a proper tussle, the breakaway hunters and the sprinters will take centre stage. The fast men, the unloved folk of the past Tour, get their moments to shine on stages five, seven and eight. And then again on stages 11 and 12. But they won’t be fighting it out on the Champs-Élysées. ASO has chosen unpredictability and final day hype over a predictable routine bunch finish, favouring the return of the Montmartre circuit. The stage 21 sprint, once a cornerstone of the race, has been designated at risk of extinction status. If the sprinters want glory on the final day, Italy in May and Spain in September are nice destinations.

Tour time trials, too, are running on a life support machine. There is only one, on stage 16, and it’s only 26km in length. Evenepoel will be vexed; Pogačar indifferent, and Vingegaard – based on his 2025 TT results – will be breathing a big ol’ sigh of relief.

Visma-Lease a Bike, UAE Team Emirates-XRG and Red Bull-Bora-hansgrohe completed the 2025 Tour de France podium. Will the same three teams occupy the same three spots in 2026?

Before Evenepoel gets the chance to win in Thonon-les-Bains (because, let’s be honest, providing he’s still in the race he will win the time trial), there are a couple of tricky stages in the Massif Central and the Vosges. They could force a rejig at the top of the general classification, but none of the climbs are long or difficult enough to really put the race to bed. It’s when the Alps arrive on stage 15, via a summit finish to Plateau de Solaison (11.3km at 9.1%), that the race will truly erupt.

The highlight of the third week – and, indeed, the entire three weeks – is undoubtedly the double ascent of Alpe d’Huez, with the riders snaking their way to the top on both stages 19 and 20; the switchbacks are to host their longest ever party. On the final Friday it’s a straight shootout up the Alpe, but the following day the Croix de Fer, Télégraphe and the Galibier all precede the finish at the ski station. There’s another surprise in store – the riders will arrive at the summit for a second time via the Col de Sarenne. That could very possibly mute and tame the queen stage’s finale, but maybe it won’t – maybe there’ll be a repeat of 2022 and Pogačar will be ambushed on the Galibier.

For as long as the Tour de France has existed, the race organisers have tried to build suspense from the start and maintain it until the last pedal stroke. The softly softly approach to the Pyrenees, allied to the surprising number of sprint stages, as well as the the limited number of time trialling kilometres, means that the 2026 race will take shape on the opening weekend, but then probably won’t reach fever pitch until the Alps in the final week. Suspense has a good chance of sticking around until (almost?) the end, but there’s nothing in the route that looks likely to unseat Pogačar from this throne. He can surely smell a record-equalling fifth Tour title.

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